2002 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Patrick Ramsey

21·34

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB A.J. Feeley

Veterans Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 42°F · wind 21mph

Closing spread

PHI -7.5

Total

38

Model margin

+4.1est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapEagles
  • -0.056EPA / play+0.004
  • 41.7%Success rate43.3%
  • -0.037EPA / dropback+0.036
  • -0.083EPA / rush-0.043
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.8%
  • 39.7%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
  • 1.22Points / drive1.81
  • 3.3%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.082EPA / play allowed-0.178

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–22 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. PHI are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8PHI @ WAS10–27WAS
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–PHI
WASQ1 15:00224Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 14:1726Turnover0–0
WASQ1 13:35416Punt0–0
PHIQ1 11:02465Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 8:494-1Punt0–7
PHIQ1 6:18625Punt0–7
PHIQ1 2:26617Field goal0–10
WASQ2 14:5832Punt0–10
PHIQ2 13:14780Touchdown0–17
WASQ2 9:1533Punt0–17
PHIQ2 7:43624Punt0–17
WASQ2 5:02861Touchdown7–17
PHIQ2 1:55625Punt7–17
WASQ2 0:1515End of half7–17
PHIQ3 15:0030Punt7–17
WASQ3 14:2938Punt7–17
PHIQ3 12:2255Punt7–17
WASQ3 10:59317Opp touchdown7–24
PHIQ3 9:5500Opp touchdown7–24
WASQ3 9:55823Punt7–24
PHIQ3 7:041063Touchdown7–31
WASQ3 1:551063Touchdown14–31
PHIQ4 12:5235Punt14–31
WASQ4 11:05650Touchdown21–31
PHIQ4 8:3639Punt21–31
WASQ4 6:14719Turnover on downs21–31
PHIQ4 3:223-3Field goal21–34
WASQ4 2:2942Punt21–34
PHIQ4 0:3200End of half21–34

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Ramsey23/3521330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ladell Betts16493.10
Stephen Davis22412.00
Kenny Watson492.30
Patrick Ramsey231.50
Rod Gardner111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrius Thompson710701
Rod Gardner37581
Darnerien McCants45390
Chris Doering11151
Rock Cartwright33150
Zeron Flemister1380
Ladell Betts2370
Kenny Watson2210

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
A.J. Feeley16/2822021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duce Staley20623.11
Dorsey Levens8435.40
A.J. Feeley252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cecil Martin33590
Todd Pinkston58490
Chad Lewis23440
Duce Staley24441
Dorsey Levens23110
Freddie Mitchell1170
Antonio Freeman1261
James Thrash0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.0%

Expected total

41.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.78
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.09