2002 · Week 15 · Division
Final
Veterans Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 42°F · wind 21mph
Closing spread
PHI -7.5
Total
38
Model margin
+4.1est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.056EPA / play+0.004
- 41.7%Success rate43.3%
- -0.037EPA / dropback+0.036
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.043
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.8%
- 39.7%Third-down rate39.3%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 1.22Points / drive1.81
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.082EPA / play allowed-0.178
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ramsey | 23/35 | 213 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladell Betts | 16 | 49 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Rod Gardner | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrius Thompson | 7 | 10 | 70 | 1 |
| Rod Gardner | 3 | 7 | 58 | 1 |
| Darnerien McCants | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Chris Doering | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| Rock Cartwright | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Zeron Flemister | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Feeley | 16/28 | 220 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 20 | 62 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Dorsey Levens | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 0 |
| A.J. Feeley | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Martin | 3 | 3 | 59 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 5 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 2 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 2 | 4 | 44 | 1 |
| Dorsey Levens | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| James Thrash | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.78
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.09