2002 · Week 16

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Chris Chandler

14·24

Panthers

Carolina

QB Rodney Peete

Ericsson Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

CAR -4

Total

36.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.129EPA / play-0.177
  • 40.0%Success rate35.3%
  • -0.089EPA / dropback-0.144
  • -0.197EPA / rush-0.219
  • 7.5%Explosive rate9.1%
  • 33.7%Third-down rate29.3%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
  • 1.35Points / drive0.82
  • 3.2%Turnover rate3.8%
  • -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.112

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 9–4 since 1999

CHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. CAR are 5-6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1CHI @ CAR59–37CHI
2024 · W5CAR @ CHI10–36CHI
2023 · W10CAR @ CHI13–16CHI
2020 · W6CHI @ CAR23–16CHI
2017 · W7CAR @ CHI3–17CHI
2014 · W5CHI @ CAR24–31CAR
2012 · W8CAR @ CHI22–23CHI
2011 · W4CAR @ CHI29–34CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–CAR
CHIQ1 15:00280Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 14:13626Punt7–0
CHIQ1 10:1035Punt7–0
CARQ1 8:01617Punt7–0
CHIQ1 4:30540Turnover7–0
CARQ1 1:4730Punt7–0
CHIQ1 0:4936Punt7–0
CARQ2 14:45685Touchdown7–7
CHIQ2 12:123-22Punt7–7
CARQ2 10:4238Punt7–7
CARQ2 9:29311Touchdown7–14
CHIQ2 8:3841Punt7–14
CARQ2 6:5335Punt7–14
CHIQ2 5:541-2Turnover7–14
CARQ2 5:46519Touchdown7–21
CHIQ2 3:523-6Punt7–21
CARQ2 2:133-9Punt7–21
CHIQ2 1:4732Punt7–21
CARQ2 1:0747Turnover7–21
CHIQ2 0:21228Missed field goal7–21
CARQ3 15:0037Punt7–21
CHIQ3 13:193-1Punt7–21
CARQ3 12:2436Punt7–21
CHIQ3 10:2035Punt7–21
CARQ3 8:42410Punt7–21
CHIQ3 6:10518Punt7–21
CARQ3 2:51928Turnover7–21
CHIQ4 13:20313Touchdown14–21
CARQ4 11:48931Punt14–21
CHIQ4 7:341-13Turnover14–21
CARQ4 7:243-1Field goal14–24
CHIQ4 5:1634Punt14–24
CARQ4 4:2537Punt14–24
CHIQ4 3:531128Turnover on downs14–24
CARQ4 1:5400End of half14–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Chandler7/811310
Henry Burris8/225010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leon Johnson16291.80
Henry Burris3175.70
Adrian Peterson294.50
Chris Chandler100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez White24812
John Gilmore22320
Marcus Robinson14280
Marty Booker59200
Leon Johnson4670
Ahmad Merritt0100
Adrian Peterson11-50

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rodney Peete18/3517910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dee Brown23552.42
Joe Montgomery7202.90
Nick Goings6172.80
Rodney Peete3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith49970
Isaac Byrd36240
Muhsin Muhammad57221
Nick Goings25190
Wesley Walls1290
Kris Mangum1240
Dee Brown0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.0%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.28
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.64
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.48