Closing spread
CAR -4
Total
36.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play-0.177
- 40.0%Success rate35.3%
- -0.089EPA / dropback-0.144
- -0.197EPA / rush-0.219
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.1%
- 33.7%Third-down rate29.3%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
- 1.35Points / drive0.82
- 3.2%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.112
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 9–4 since 1999
CHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. CAR are 5-6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 7/8 | 113 | 1 | 0 |
| Henry Burris | 8/22 | 50 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Johnson | 16 | 29 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Henry Burris | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez White | 2 | 4 | 81 | 2 |
| John Gilmore | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Marcus Robinson | 1 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 5 | 9 | 20 | 0 |
| Leon Johnson | 4 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| Ahmad Merritt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Peete | 18/35 | 179 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dee Brown | 23 | 55 | 2.4 | 2 |
| Joe Montgomery | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Rodney Peete | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 4 | 9 | 97 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 5 | 7 | 22 | 1 |
| Nick Goings | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Dee Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.64
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.48