Closing spread
BAL -2.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play-0.058
- 42.2%Success rate41.6%
- +0.050EPA / dropback-0.044
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.078
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.3%
- 40.7%Third-down rate38.2%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.59Points / drive1.09
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.025EPA / play allowed-0.021
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. BAL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 22/31 | 209 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Green | 20 | 56 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Tim Couch | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamel White | 4 | 5 | 63 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 3 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Andre King | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 2 | 5 | 7 | 1 |
| Steve Heiden | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| William Green | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 16/28 | 143 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 21 | 100 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Heap | 7 | 11 | 61 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 3 | 6 | 39 | 1 |
| Randy Hymes | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Ron Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.64