Closing spread
OAK -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 13/28 | 234 | 0 | 1 |
| Brian Griese | 7/15 | 48 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 12 | 52 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Mike Anderson | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Olandis Gary | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Lelie | 4 | 8 | 106 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 7 | 11 | 84 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 5 | 10 | 64 | 0 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Scottie Montgomery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.04
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.