Closing spread
OAK -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 14:05 | 6 | 46 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 11:27 | 6 | 10 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 8:27 | 8 | 38 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| DEN | Q1 4:14 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LV | Q1 2:35 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 0–14 |
| DEN | Q1 0:09 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| LV | Q1 0:03 | 5 | 25 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| DEN | Q2 12:49 | 9 | 35 | Turnover on downs | 0–21 |
| LV | Q2 9:00 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 0–21 |
| DEN | Q2 5:33 | 5 | -7 | Punt | 0–21 |
| LV | Q2 3:03 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–21 |
| DEN | Q2 1:50 | 9 | 104 | Field goal | 3–21 |
| LV | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–21 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 42 | Punt | 3–21 |
| DEN | Q3 11:20 | 12 | 75 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| LV | Q3 5:17 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 10–21 |
| DEN | Q3 5:09 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 10–21 |
| LV | Q3 4:14 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 10–21 |
| DEN | Q3 0:37 | 3 | 32 | Touchdown | 16–21 |
| LV | Q4 14:57 | 8 | 37 | Turnover | 16–21 |
| DEN | Q4 11:25 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 16–21 |
| LV | Q4 10:29 | 6 | 57 | Touchdown | 16–28 |
| DEN | Q4 6:58 | 4 | 14 | Turnover | 16–28 |
| LV | Q4 5:39 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 16–28 |
| DEN | Q4 2:30 | 10 | 57 | Turnover on downs | 16–28 |
| LV | Q4 1:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 16–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 13/28 | 234 | 0 | 1 |
| Brian Griese | 7/15 | 48 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 12 | 52 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Mike Anderson | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Olandis Gary | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Lelie | 4 | 8 | 106 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 7 | 11 | 84 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 5 | 10 | 64 | 0 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Scottie Montgomery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.04
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.