2002 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB A.J. Feeley

27·3

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Chad Hutchinson

Texas Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 62°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PHI -7

Total

36.5

Model margin

-2.8est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCowboys
  • +0.004EPA / play-0.190
  • 43.3%Success rate37.2%
  • +0.036EPA / dropback-0.193
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.185
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.2%
  • 39.3%Third-down rate23.8%
  • 53.1%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.81Points / drive0.79
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.3%
  • -0.178EPA / play allowed-0.059

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DAL
PHIQ1 15:00631Punt0–0
DALQ1 12:20930Punt0–0
PHIQ1 6:43553Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 4:5647Punt7–0
PHIQ1 2:56619Punt7–0
DALQ2 14:49514Punt7–0
PHIQ2 11:48878Touchdown14–0
DALQ2 7:2536Punt14–0
PHIQ2 6:2538Punt14–0
DALQ2 5:0330Punt14–0
PHIQ2 4:081184Field goal17–0
DALQ2 0:0400End of half17–0
DALQ3 15:0031Turnover17–0
PHIQ3 13:19538Turnover17–0
DALQ3 11:25834Punt17–0
PHIQ3 7:1839Punt17–0
DALQ3 4:4247Turnover on downs17–0
PHIQ3 3:1235Punt17–0
DALQ3 1:58414Field goal17–3
PHIQ4 14:5231Turnover17–3
DALQ4 13:23324Opp touchdown24–3
PHIQ4 12:1300Opp touchdown24–3
DALQ4 12:1300Field goal24–3
PHIQ4 12:0539Field goal27–3
DALQ4 10:405-9Punt27–3
PHIQ4 8:0030Punt27–3
DALQ4 6:56418Punt27–3
PHIQ4 4:38724End of half27–3

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
A.J. Feeley19/3325312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duce Staley19562.91
Brian Westbrook8556.90
Dorsey Levens221.00
A.J. Feeley221.00
James Thrash1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Freeman46820
Todd Pinkston49551
Chad Lewis33340
James Thrash12340
Duce Staley33270
Freddie Mitchell26170
Dorsey Levens1150
Brian Westbrook11-10

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Hutchinson15/2412801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith8303.80
Chad Hutchinson4287.00
Michael Wiley166.00
Troy Hambrick640.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Bryant33340
Tony McGee33280
Darnay Scott23250
James Whalen34240
Emmitt Smith2360
Troy Hambrick1160
Joey Galloway0300
Michael Wiley0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.6%3.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

4.77%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.5%

Expected total

40.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.47
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.91
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.81