Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
36.5
Model margin
-2.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.190
- 43.3%Success rate37.2%
- +0.036EPA / dropback-0.193
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.185
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.2%
- 39.3%Third-down rate23.8%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.81Points / drive0.79
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.178EPA / play allowed-0.059
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Feeley | 19/33 | 253 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 19 | 56 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Brian Westbrook | 8 | 55 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| A.J. Feeley | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 4 | 6 | 82 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 4 | 9 | 55 | 1 |
| Chad Lewis | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Hutchinson | 15/24 | 128 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Chad Hutchinson | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Bryant | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Darnay Scott | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| James Whalen | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.5%
Expected total
40.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.47
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.91
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.81