Closing spread
KC -1.5
Total
44
Model margin
+3.6est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:49 | 7 | 14 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 10:30 | 11 | 61 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 5:11 | 7 | 60 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| KC | Q1 2:01 | 5 | 6 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q1 0:43 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–7 |
| KC | Q2 14:16 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q2 11:39 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 3–7 |
| KC | Q2 8:00 | 13 | 83 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| LAC | Q2 1:15 | 6 | 35 | Field goal | 6–14 |
| KC | Q2 0:14 | 1 | 3 | End of half | 6–14 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–14 |
| KC | Q3 13:55 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–14 |
| LAC | Q3 12:19 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 6–14 |
| KC | Q3 11:09 | 1 | 99 | Touchdown | 6–21 |
| LAC | Q3 10:56 | 7 | 71 | Touchdown | 12–21 |
| KC | Q3 7:35 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 12–21 |
| LAC | Q3 5:26 | 7 | 64 | Field goal | 15–21 |
| KC | Q3 2:27 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 15–21 |
| LAC | Q3 0:28 | 9 | 79 | Touchdown | 22–21 |
| KC | Q4 10:58 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 22–21 |
| LAC | Q4 10:42 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 22–21 |
| KC | Q4 8:56 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 22–21 |
| LAC | Q4 8:02 | 4 | -3 | Punt | 22–21 |
| KC | Q4 5:23 | 13 | 72 | Field goal | 22–24 |
| LAC | Q4 1:08 | 3 | 20 | Turnover | 22–24 |
| KC | Q4 0:33 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 22–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 23/36 | 337 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Cloud | 16 | 19 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Boerigter | 5 | 8 | 144 | 2 |
| Eddie Kennison | 5 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 6 | 10 | 65 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Omar Easy | 3 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Dante Hall | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.06
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.63
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.