Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
-1.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.098EPA / play-0.092
- 45.2%Success rate38.4%
- +0.159EPA / dropback-0.052
- +0.004EPA / rush-0.160
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.2%
- 52.5%Third-down rate43.6%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 1.83Points / drive1.06
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.046EPA / play allowed+0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 29–22 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. ARI are 24-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 13:41 | 8 | 63 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 9:57 | 4 | 39 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| SF | Q1 7:36 | 11 | 31 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 3:08 | 2 | 8 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| SF | Q1 2:18 | 5 | 29 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 0:01 | 17 | 53 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| SF | Q2 7:37 | 16 | 70 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| ARI | Q2 0:45 | 3 | 4 | End of half | 10–7 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 47 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| ARI | Q3 13:22 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–7 |
| SF | Q3 11:16 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 17–7 |
| ARI | Q3 10:14 | 7 | 19 | Turnover | 17–7 |
| SF | Q3 7:56 | 14 | 63 | Turnover | 17–7 |
| ARI | Q3 0:59 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 17–7 |
| SF | Q4 13:33 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 17–7 |
| ARI | Q4 11:17 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 17–7 |
| SF | Q4 8:35 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 17–7 |
| ARI | Q4 7:38 | 7 | 33 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| SF | Q4 4:08 | 8 | 37 | End of half | 17–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 23/39 | 256 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 13 | 50 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tai Streets | 8 | 14 | 90 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Eric Johnson | 3 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Justin Swift | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 16/26 | 109 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 20 | 84 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Kasper | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kasper | 4 | 7 | 33 | 2 |
| Marcel Shipp | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Steve Bush | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Jason McAddley | 2 | 7 | 12 | 0 |
| Nate Poole | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.2%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.05