Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
-3.7est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play-0.269
- 44.9%Success rate40.3%
- +0.151EPA / dropback-0.158
- -0.095EPA / rush-0.424
- 6.9%Explosive rate8.6%
- 43.7%Third-down rate33.9%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate29.3%
- 1.58Points / drive0.22
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%
- -0.038EPA / play allowed+0.014
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 13/21 | 115 | 1 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 12/23 | 114 | 0 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 6/13 | 43 | 1 | 0 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 21 | 89 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Steve McNair | 8 | 58 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| John Simon | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 6 | 8 | 56 | 1 |
| Kyle Brady | 5 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 4 | 9 | 50 | 0 |
| Drew Bennett | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jimmy Smith | 3 | 6 | 14 | 1 |
| Greg Comella | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Justin McCareins | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Erron Kinney | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Elvis Joseph | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Ross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.1%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-3.73