Closing spread
PIT -8
Total
39
Model margin
+4.5est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play+0.008
- 41.6%Success rate43.3%
- -0.044EPA / dropback+0.070
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.073
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.7%
- 38.2%Third-down rate42.2%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 1.09Points / drive1.71
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.021EPA / play allowed-0.086
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 71 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 10:08 | 12 | 70 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BAL | Q1 5:43 | 3 | 59 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| PIT | Q1 4:32 | 9 | 58 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| BAL | Q2 14:56 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 7–10 |
| PIT | Q2 13:22 | 14 | 34 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| BAL | Q2 6:48 | 3 | 32 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| PIT | Q2 5:33 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–17 |
| BAL | Q2 4:02 | 5 | 37 | Punt | 14–17 |
| PIT | Q2 1:45 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 14–17 |
| BAL | Q2 0:31 | 2 | -3 | Turnover | 14–17 |
| PIT | Q2 0:09 | 1 | 21 | Field goal | 14–20 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 14–20 |
| BAL | Q3 13:11 | 8 | 48 | Field goal | 17–20 |
| PIT | Q3 9:25 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 17–20 |
| BAL | Q3 7:58 | 2 | 52 | Touchdown | 24–20 |
| PIT | Q3 7:07 | 7 | 45 | Turnover | 24–20 |
| BAL | Q3 2:59 | 10 | 71 | Touchdown | 31–20 |
| PIT | Q4 12:57 | 10 | 67 | Touchdown | 31–26 |
| BAL | Q4 7:51 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 31–26 |
| PIT | Q4 7:47 | 9 | 31 | Touchdown | 31–34 |
| BAL | Q4 2:29 | 10 | 60 | Turnover | 31–34 |
| PIT | Q4 0:14 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 31–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 19/26 | 336 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 14 | 86 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Jeff Blake | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Heap | 7 | 9 | 146 | 1 |
| Randy Hymes | 2 | 3 | 76 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 5 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| Alan Ricard | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Milton Wynn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Terry Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 20/30 | 194 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amos Zereoue | 26 | 104 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 8 | 49 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaxico Burress | 3 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 5 | 7 | 46 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 3 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| Amos Zereoue | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Jerame Tuman | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.45