Closing spread
NO -6
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
NO perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.177EPA / play-0.006
- 35.3%Success rate39.0%
- -0.144EPA / dropback+0.038
- -0.219EPA / rush-0.078
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.2%
- 29.3%Third-down rate40.9%
- 49.5%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 0.82Points / drive1.94
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.112EPA / play allowed-0.005
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 14:03 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 12:00 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 9:47 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 8:45 | 3 | 0 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CAR | Q1 7:14 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NO | Q1 5:26 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CAR | Q1 4:22 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NO | Q1 2:18 | 13 | 71 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| CAR | Q2 12:43 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NO | Q2 10:28 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| CAR | Q2 8:55 | 6 | 69 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| NO | Q2 6:04 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CAR | Q2 4:21 | 8 | 40 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| NO | Q2 0:51 | 2 | 1 | End of half | 7–3 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 36 | Punt | 7–3 |
| NO | Q3 11:30 | 9 | 48 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| CAR | Q3 5:39 | 6 | 38 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| NO | Q3 2:43 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–6 |
| CAR | Q3 1:27 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 10–6 |
| NO | Q4 13:02 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 10–6 |
| CAR | Q4 10:35 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 10–6 |
| NO | Q4 9:01 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 10–6 |
| CAR | Q4 7:05 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 10–6 |
| NO | Q4 6:08 | 7 | 4 | Turnover on downs | 10–6 |
| CAR | Q4 2:52 | 5 | 6 | Punt | 10–6 |
| NO | Q4 1:02 | 4 | 20 | Turnover | 10–6 |
| CAR | Q4 0:35 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Peete | 19/30 | 203 | 1 | 2 |
| Chris Weinke | 1/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Goings | 18 | 70 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Rod Smart | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Rodney Peete | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 7 | 8 | 95 | 0 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 3 | 7 | 5 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 12/31 | 145 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 28 | 117 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donte' Stallworth | 4 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 4 | 9 | 43 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 2 | 9 | 32 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Michael L. Lewis | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.85