Closing spread
NO -6
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
NO perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.177EPA / play-0.006
- 35.3%Success rate39.0%
- -0.144EPA / dropback+0.038
- -0.219EPA / rush-0.078
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.2%
- 29.3%Third-down rate40.9%
- 49.5%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 0.82Points / drive1.94
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.112EPA / play allowed-0.005
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Peete | 19/30 | 203 | 1 | 2 |
| Chris Weinke | 1/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Goings | 18 | 70 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Rod Smart | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Rodney Peete | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 7 | 8 | 95 | 0 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 3 | 7 | 5 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 12/31 | 145 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 28 | 117 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donte' Stallworth | 4 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 4 | 9 | 43 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 2 | 9 | 32 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Michael L. Lewis | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.85