2002 · Week 17 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
WAS -7.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+6.3est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.190EPA / play-0.056
- 37.2%Success rate41.7%
- -0.193EPA / dropback-0.037
- -0.185EPA / rush-0.083
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.5%
- 23.8%Third-down rate39.7%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 0.79Points / drive1.22
- 3.3%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.059EPA / play allowed-0.082
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 23-31 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Hutchinson | 12/23 | 189 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnay Scott | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 18 | 13 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chad Hutchinson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Bryant | 7 | 9 | 170 | 1 |
| James Whalen | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jason McKie | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ken-Yon Rambo | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ramsey | 17/31 | 209 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladell Betts | 17 | 98 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 17 | 58 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrius Thompson | 4 | 9 | 78 | 0 |
| Darnerien McCants | 6 | 8 | 60 | 0 |
| Rod Gardner | 5 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Zeron Flemister | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.7%
Expected total
40.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.16
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+6.33