2002 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Chad Hutchinson

14·20

Commanders

Washington

QB Patrick Ramsey

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

WAS -7.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+6.3est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapCommanders
  • -0.190EPA / play-0.056
  • 37.2%Success rate41.7%
  • -0.193EPA / dropback-0.037
  • -0.185EPA / rush-0.083
  • 9.2%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 23.8%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 0.79Points / drive1.22
  • 3.3%Turnover rate3.3%
  • -0.059EPA / play allowed-0.082

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. WAS are 23-32 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–WAS
DALQ1 15:0048Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:06841Punt0–0
DALQ1 9:4835Punt0–0
WASQ1 8:1610Turnover0–0
DALQ1 8:09433Punt0–0
WASQ1 6:261146Punt0–0
DALQ2 14:513-1Turnover0–0
WASQ2 13:53424Touchdown0–7
DALQ2 12:19412Punt0–7
WASQ2 9:27539Turnover0–7
DALQ2 8:073-2Punt0–7
WASQ2 6:0131Punt0–7
DALQ2 5:06412Turnover0–7
WASQ2 2:54510Opp touchdown7–7
DALQ2 0:4200Opp touchdown7–7
WASQ2 0:4213End of half7–7
WASQ3 15:00444Turnover7–7
DALQ3 12:293-9Punt7–7
WASQ3 10:52445Turnover7–7
DALQ3 9:1954Opp touchdown7–14
WASQ3 7:4100Opp touchdown7–14
DALQ3 7:4160Punt7–14
WASQ3 4:351031Field goal7–17
DALQ3 0:24572Turnover7–17
WASQ4 13:41755Field goal7–20
DALQ4 8:3135Punt7–20
WASQ4 7:0637Punt7–20
DALQ4 4:57547Touchdown14–20
WASQ4 3:10311End of half14–20

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Hutchinson12/2318911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darnay Scott11414.00
Emmitt Smith18130.70
Troy Hambrick166.00
Chad Hutchinson252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Bryant791701
James Whalen1280
Troy Hambrick2270
Jason McKie1170
Joey Galloway0100
Tony McGee0100
Michael Wiley0100
Ken-Yon Rambo0200
Emmitt Smith11-30

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Ramsey17/3120902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ladell Betts17985.80
Kenny Watson17583.41
Patrick Ramsey3-5-1.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrius Thompson49780
Darnerien McCants68600
Rod Gardner59590
Walter Rasby1170
Kenny Watson1250
Zeron Flemister0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.7%

Expected total

40.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.69
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.16
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+6.33