Closing spread
IND -8.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.269EPA / play+0.016
- 40.3%Success rate44.3%
- -0.158EPA / dropback+0.112
- -0.424EPA / rush-0.138
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.7%
- 33.9%Third-down rate44.5%
- 29.3%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 0.22Points / drive1.70
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.8%
- +0.014EPA / play allowed-0.065
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–23 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. IND are 17-32-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 12:40 | 11 | 40 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 6:44 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 5:09 | 7 | 38 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| IND | Q1 1:58 | 10 | 71 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| JAX | Q2 11:11 | 11 | 84 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| IND | Q2 4:53 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 10–3 |
| JAX | Q2 2:00 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| IND | Q2 1:01 | 4 | 18 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| JAX | Q2 0:18 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–10 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–10 |
| IND | Q3 13:39 | 10 | 48 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| JAX | Q3 6:46 | 15 | 62 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| IND | Q4 13:55 | 15 | 63 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| JAX | Q4 5:46 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 13–13 |
| IND | Q4 4:37 | 8 | 35 | Touchdown | 13–20 |
| JAX | Q4 2:26 | 10 | 38 | Turnover on downs | 13–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 13/26 | 135 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 15 | 73 | 4.9 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 11 | 44 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Jimmy Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 3 | 10 | 35 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 20/28 | 146 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 15 | 86 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| James Mungro | 11 | 19 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Marvin Harrison | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Pollard | 5 | 8 | 39 | 1 |
| Edgerrin James | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison | 6 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Troy Walters | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| James Mungro | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Joe Dean Davenport | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.8%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.04
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.79