Closing spread
OAK -8.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. OAK are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:50 | 11 | 46 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 7:04 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 3:28 | 11 | 65 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| KC | Q2 13:11 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q2 10:35 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–7 |
| KC | Q2 10:04 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LV | Q2 8:16 | 14 | 79 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| KC | Q2 1:34 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LV | Q2 0:35 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 0–14 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 15 | 52 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| KC | Q3 7:01 | 8 | 27 | Turnover on downs | 0–17 |
| LV | Q3 2:17 | 11 | 38 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| KC | Q4 10:49 | 9 | 37 | Turnover on downs | 0–17 |
| LV | Q4 8:15 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–24 |
| KC | Q4 2:18 | 11 | 49 | End of half | 0–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 15/32 | 137 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Cloud | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Blaylock | 5 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Marc Boerigter | 2 | 8 | 18 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Omar Easy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.06
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.50
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.