Closing spread
MIA -2
Total
38
Model margin
+0.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.017EPA / play-0.000
- 45.0%Success rate43.6%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.064
- 11.0%Explosive rate6.3%
- 37.0%Third-down rate43.1%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.85Points / drive1.69
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 11/25 | 110 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 31 | 185 | 6.0 | 2 |
| Chris Chambers | 3 | 59 | 19.7 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dedric Ward | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 1 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| Randy McMichael | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Cris Carter | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/44 | 221 | 1 | 1 |
| David Patten | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 19 | 55 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 8 | 53 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 9 | 15 | 70 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 8 | 12 | 67 | 1 |
| David Patten | 5 | 10 | 56 | 0 |
| David Givens | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.40
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.08