Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
+1.3est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.060EPA / play-0.148
- 45.1%Success rate34.3%
- +0.054EPA / dropback-0.156
- +0.071EPA / rush-0.134
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.1%
- 43.6%Third-down rate29.8%
- 58.3%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
- 1.93Points / drive0.96
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.082EPA / play allowed+0.065
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 21/29 | 312 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 19 | 82 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Moe Williams | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 6 | 10 | 109 | 0 |
| D'Wayne Bates | 5 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Kelly Campbell | 4 | 6 | 60 | 2 |
| Michael Bennett | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Hunter Goodwin | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike McMahon | 19/44 | 293 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike McMahon | 3 | 43 | 14.3 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 11 | 25 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Eddie Drummond | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rafael Cooper | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Schroeder | 6 | 8 | 132 | 1 |
| Scotty Anderson | 4 | 8 | 56 | 1 |
| Aveion Cason | 2 | 2 | 49 | 1 |
| Larry Foster | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Matt Murphy | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Rafael Cooper | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eddie Drummond | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| John Owens | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.73
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.55
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.30