2002 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Daunte Culpepper

38·36

Lions

Detroit

QB Mike McMahon

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

MIN -3.5

Total

47

Model margin

+1.3est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapLions
  • +0.060EPA / play-0.148
  • 45.1%Success rate34.3%
  • +0.054EPA / dropback-0.156
  • +0.071EPA / rush-0.134
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.1%
  • 43.6%Third-down rate29.8%
  • 58.3%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
  • 1.93Points / drive0.96
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.9%
  • +0.082EPA / play allowed+0.065

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–18 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET
2022 · W3DET @ MIN24–28MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–DET
DETQ1 15:00761Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 11:561464Touchdown7–7
DETQ1 3:5323Opp touchdown14–7
MINQ1 3:0000Opp touchdown14–7
DETQ1 3:00671Touchdown14–14
MINQ1 0:08673Touchdown21–14
DETQ2 11:49732Punt21–14
MINQ2 8:16591Touchdown28–14
DETQ2 5:54948Field goal28–17
MINQ2 1:5033Punt28–17
DETQ2 1:14422Punt28–17
MINQ2 0:2510End of half28–17
MINQ3 15:00637Turnover28–17
DETQ3 11:501768Turnover on downs28–23
MINQ3 5:501-1Opp touchdown28–24
DETQ3 5:4100Opp touchdown28–24
MINQ3 5:41883Touchdown35–24
DETQ3 0:58612Turnover35–24
MINQ4 13:39612Opp touchdown35–30
DETQ4 10:5600Opp touchdown35–30
MINQ4 10:56517Punt35–30
DETQ4 8:4848Turnover35–30
MINQ4 7:491272Field goal38–30
DETQ4 1:09761Touchdown38–36
MINQ4 0:1300End of half38–36

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daunte Culpepper21/2931221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Bennett19824.31
Moe Williams6355.80
Daunte Culpepper8344.31
Jimmy Kleinsasser133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randy Moss6101090
D'Wayne Bates56750
Kelly Campbell46602
Michael Bennett33310
Jimmy Kleinsasser22290
Hunter Goodwin1280

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike McMahon19/4429333

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike McMahon34314.30
James Stewart11252.30
Eddie Drummond2178.50
Aveion Cason133.00
Rafael Cooper111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bill Schroeder681321
Scotty Anderson48561
Aveion Cason22491
Larry Foster24170
James Stewart11120
Matt Murphy1380
Rafael Cooper1340
Jacquez Green0100
Eddie Drummond0100
John Owens0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.6%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.73
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.55
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.30