Closing spread
NYG -1
Total
37.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.008
- 43.3%Success rate41.7%
- +0.036EPA / dropback+0.151
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.177
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.6%
- 39.3%Third-down rate38.8%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate44.5%
- 1.81Points / drive1.46
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.178EPA / play allowed-0.060
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Feeley | 13/25 | 150 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 17 | 28 | 1.6 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 1 |
| Dorsey Levens | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| A.J. Feeley | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 25/35 | 256 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 32 | 203 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Shockey | 10 | 13 | 98 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 8 | 11 | 73 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 2 | 3 | 57 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Daryl Jones | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Charles Stackhouse | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Derek Dorris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.91
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.89