Closing spread
STL -2
Total
39.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. STL are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 19 | 78 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 2:53 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 0:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 3–0 |
| SF | Q2 15:00 | 7 | 68 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| LA | Q2 10:34 | 6 | -13 | Punt | 10–0 |
| SF | Q2 7:31 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LA | Q2 6:39 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 10–0 |
| SF | Q2 4:26 | 3 | 70 | Touchdown | 17–0 |
| LA | Q2 3:02 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–0 |
| SF | Q2 1:45 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–0 |
| LA | Q2 1:15 | 5 | 23 | Turnover | 17–0 |
| SF | Q2 0:10 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 17–0 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–0 |
| SF | Q3 13:23 | 6 | 39 | Punt | 17–0 |
| LA | Q3 8:58 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–0 |
| SF | Q3 7:56 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 17–0 |
| LA | Q3 5:49 | 10 | 23 | Field goal | 17–3 |
| SF | Q3 1:47 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 17–3 |
| LA | Q3 1:46 | 2 | 20 | Turnover | 17–3 |
| SF | Q3 0:59 | 3 | -10 | Field goal | 20–3 |
| LA | Q4 13:43 | 6 | 72 | Touchdown | 20–10 |
| SF | Q4 11:32 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 20–10 |
| LA | Q4 10:23 | 7 | 53 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| SF | Q4 7:09 | 1 | 1 | Opp touchdown | 20–24 |
| LA | Q4 6:54 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 20–24 |
| SF | Q4 6:54 | 7 | 42 | Turnover | 20–24 |
| LA | Q4 2:51 | 5 | 51 | Touchdown | 20–31 |
| SF | Q4 1:53 | 3 | 21 | End of half | 20–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 14/21 | 138 | 2 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 2/3 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 10 | 87 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 19 | 67 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Paul Smith | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tai Streets | 5 | 8 | 53 | 2 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 4 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Justin Swift | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Eric Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.2%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.85
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.32
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.