Closing spread
STL -2
Total
39.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. STL are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 14/21 | 138 | 2 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 2/3 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 10 | 87 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 19 | 67 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Paul Smith | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tai Streets | 5 | 8 | 53 | 2 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 4 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Justin Swift | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Eric Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.2%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.85
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.32
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.