Closing spread
TEN -9.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
-2.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play-0.226
- 44.9%Success rate33.0%
- +0.151EPA / dropback-0.172
- -0.095EPA / rush-0.307
- 6.9%Explosive rate5.8%
- 43.7%Third-down rate25.7%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate39.5%
- 1.58Points / drive0.66
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.038EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 25–24 since 1999
HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. HOU are 29-19-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 13:50 | 12 | 50 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 7:35 | 6 | 51 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q1 3:58 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q1 2:51 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q1 0:58 | 9 | 34 | Missed field goal | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q2 11:30 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q2 8:37 | 6 | 42 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q2 4:25 | 4 | 14 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| HOU | Q2 2:54 | 8 | 26 | Punt | 6–0 |
| TEN | Q2 0:43 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 6–0 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 6–0 |
| TEN | Q3 11:46 | 7 | 21 | Punt | 6–0 |
| HOU | Q3 7:58 | 13 | 22 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| TEN | Q3 0:52 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 6–3 |
| HOU | Q4 13:54 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–3 |
| TEN | Q4 12:46 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 6–3 |
| HOU | Q4 9:55 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 6–3 |
| TEN | Q4 9:35 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 13–3 |
| HOU | Q4 5:10 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 13–3 |
| TEN | Q4 3:45 | 8 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 13–3 |
| HOU | Q4 0:23 | 4 | 26 | End of half | 13–3 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 8/22 | 148 | 0 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 25 | 102 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bennett | 2 | 4 | 58 | 0 |
| Justin McCareins | 2 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 21/40 | 214 | 0 | 1 |
| James Allen | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| David Carr | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 13 | 1 | 0.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabar Gaffney | 6 | 9 | 73 | 0 |
| James Allen | 6 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Billy Miller | 3 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Jabari Holloway | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| JaJuan Dawson | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Atnaf Harris | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Avion Black | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.5%
Expected total
41.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.62
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.06