Closing spread
PIT -8
Total
43
Model margin
+0.9est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play+0.008
- 42.2%Success rate43.3%
- +0.050EPA / dropback+0.070
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.073
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.7%
- 40.7%Third-down rate42.2%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 1.59Points / drive1.71
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.025EPA / play allowed-0.086
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 26/43 | 429 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Green | 25 | 30 | 1.2 | 1 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Johnson | 4 | 12 | 140 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 6 | 8 | 92 | 2 |
| Andre Davis | 2 | 4 | 65 | 1 |
| Jamel White | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Andre King | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| William Green | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Darnell Sanders | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 30/48 | 367 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amos Zereoue | 13 | 73 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 11 | 14 | 104 | 1 |
| Plaxico Burress | 6 | 11 | 100 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 5 | 10 | 85 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Jerame Tuman | 3 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.04
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.69
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.91