2002 · WC · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Kelly Holcomb

33·36

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Tommy Maddox

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 27°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PIT -8

Total

43

Model margin

+0.9est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.007EPA / play+0.008
  • 42.2%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.050EPA / dropback+0.070
  • -0.064EPA / rush-0.073
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.7%
  • 40.7%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.71
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.025EPA / play allowed-0.086

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999

Meetings average 39 points. PIT are 30-26-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CLE @ PIT6–27PIT
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–PIT
CLEQ1 15:00485Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 13:443-3Punt7–0
CLEQ1 11:4742Punt7–0
PITQ1 9:59848Punt7–0
CLEQ1 6:16624Punt7–0
PITQ1 2:42236Turnover7–0
CLEQ1 1:4632Punt13–0
CLEQ2 14:44132Touchdown14–0
PITQ2 14:38636Turnover14–0
CLEQ2 11:1830Opp touchdown14–7
PITQ2 9:3500Opp touchdown14–7
CLEQ2 9:35520Punt14–7
PITQ2 6:3835Punt14–7
CLEQ2 5:13945Field goal17–7
PITQ2 0:49541Missed field goal17–7
CLEQ2 0:0200End of half17–7
PITQ3 15:0037Punt17–7
CLEQ3 13:00314Touchdown24–7
PITQ3 12:1133Punt24–7
CLEQ3 11:12929Turnover24–7
PITQ3 7:351071Touchdown24–14
CLEQ3 3:50764Field goal27–14
PITQ4 14:52665Touchdown27–21
CLEQ4 12:28561Touchdown33–21
PITQ4 10:17510Punt33–21
CLEQ4 8:40620Punt33–21
PITQ4 5:301352Touchdown33–28
CLEQ4 3:0633Punt33–28
PITQ4 2:35661Touchdown33–36
CLEQ4 0:54647End of half33–36

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kelly Holcomb26/4342931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
William Green25301.21
Dennis Northcutt155.00
Kelly Holcomb231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Johnson4121400
Dennis Northcutt68922
Andre Davis24651
Jamel White56450
Mark Campbell34310
Quincy Morgan24300
Andre King11160
William Green2280
Darnell Sanders1120

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tommy Maddox30/4836732

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Amos Zereoue13735.60
Tommy Maddox273.50
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala242.01
Hines Ward144.00
Antwaan Randle El133.00
Jerome Bettis1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hines Ward11141041
Plaxico Burress6111001
Antwaan Randle El510850
Terance Mathis36400
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala23200
Jerame Tuman33181

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +84.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.5%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.69
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.91