Closing spread
SF -3
Total
41
Model margin
+2.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play+0.098
- 41.7%Success rate45.2%
- +0.151EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.177EPA / rush+0.004
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.5%
- 38.8%Third-down rate52.5%
- 44.5%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.46Points / drive1.83
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.5%
- -0.060EPA / play allowed+0.046
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–7 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 29/43 | 342 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 26 | 115 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 8 | 11 | 136 | 3 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 7 | 14 | 68 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 5 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 5 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Charles Stackhouse | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Daryl Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 27/44 | 331 | 3 | 1 |
| Terrell Owens | 1/1 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 7 | 60 | 8.6 | 1 |
| Garrison Hearst | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 9 | 11 | 177 | 2 |
| Eric Johnson | 8 | 10 | 78 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 5 | 9 | 58 | 1 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 2 | 8 | 14 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin+2.17