2002 · WC

Final

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

38·39

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jeff Garcia

3Com Park · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SF -3

Total

41

Model margin

+2.2est.

SF perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge map49ers
  • +0.008EPA / play+0.098
  • 41.7%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.151EPA / dropback+0.159
  • -0.177EPA / rush+0.004
  • 9.6%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 38.8%Third-down rate52.5%
  • 44.5%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 1.46Points / drive1.83
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.5%
  • -0.060EPA / play allowed+0.046

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 8–7 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. SF are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9SF @ NYG34–24SF
2023 · W3NYG @ SF12–30SF
2020 · W3SF @ NYG36–9SF
2018 · W10NYG @ SF27–23NYG
2017 · W10NYG @ SF21–31SF
2015 · W5SF @ NYG27–30NYG
2014 · W11SF @ NYG16–10SF
2012 · W6NYG @ SF26–3NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–SF
NYGQ1 15:00943Turnover0–6
SFQ1 10:10176Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 9:59522Punt0–7
SFQ1 7:19519Punt0–7
NYGQ1 4:331155Touchdown7–7
SFQ1 0:1832Punt7–7
NYGQ2 14:43561Touchdown14–7
SFQ2 12:191069Touchdown14–14
NYGQ2 6:0565Punt20–14
NYGQ2 2:5418Touchdown21–14
SFQ2 2:49414Turnover21–14
NYGQ2 1:53666Touchdown28–14
SFQ2 0:1000End of half28–14
SFQ3 15:00624Turnover on downs28–14
NYGQ3 12:09654Touchdown35–14
SFQ3 9:5333Punt35–14
NYGQ3 8:47863Field goal38–14
SFQ3 4:27770Touchdown38–22
NYGQ3 2:033-7Punt38–22
SFQ3 0:36327Touchdown38–30
NYGQ4 14:5532Punt38–30
SFQ4 13:151474Field goal38–33
NYGQ4 7:49740Missed field goal38–33
SFQ4 3:01968Touchdown38–39
NYGQ4 1:00634End of half38–39

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins29/4334241

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber261154.41
Ron Dayne341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amani Toomer8111363
Jeremy Shockey714681
Tiki Barber55620
Ron Dixon56520
Dan Campbell23130
Charles Stackhouse22110
Ron Dayne0100
Daryl Jones0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Garcia27/4433131
Terrell Owens1/12500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeff Garcia7608.61
Garrison Hearst6152.50
Kevan Barlow4123.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrell Owens9111772
Eric Johnson810780
Tai Streets59581
Cedrick Wilson11180
J.J. Stokes28140
Garrison Hearst1330
Kevan Barlow0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.9%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.16
  • Expected margin+2.17