Closing spread
TEN -4.5
Total
44
Model margin
+4.0est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play+0.043
- 43.3%Success rate44.9%
- +0.070EPA / dropback+0.151
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.095
- 9.7%Explosive rate6.9%
- 42.2%Third-down rate43.7%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.71Points / drive1.58
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.086EPA / play allowed-0.038
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–10 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. TEN are 9-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 21/41 | 266 | 2 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amos Zereoue | 14 | 49 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 7 | 13 | 82 | 2 |
| Plaxico Burress | 2 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 4 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Jerame Tuman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 27/44 | 338 | 2 | 2 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 15 | 33 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Derrick Mason | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Wycheck | 10 | 13 | 123 | 1 |
| Drew Bennett | 7 | 8 | 85 | 0 |
| Justin McCareins | 2 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 5 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| Erron Kinney | 2 | 4 | 20 | 1 |
| Eddie George | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| John Simon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.95