2002 · DIV

Final / OT

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Tommy Maddox

31·34

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

The Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 34°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

TEN -4.5

Total

44

Model margin

+4.0est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapTitans
  • +0.008EPA / play+0.043
  • 43.3%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.070EPA / dropback+0.151
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.095
  • 9.7%Explosive rate6.9%
  • 42.2%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 51.8%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 1.71Points / drive1.58
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
  • -0.086EPA / play allowed-0.038

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 11–10 since 1999

PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. TEN are 9-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9TEN @ PIT16–20PIT
2021 · W15TEN @ PIT13–19PIT
2020 · W7PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2017 · W11TEN @ PIT17–40PIT
2014 · W11PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2013 · W1TEN @ PIT16–9TEN
2012 · W6PIT @ TEN23–26TEN
2011 · W5TEN @ PIT17–38PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–TEN
PITQ1 15:00212Turnover0–0
TENQ1 14:20752Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 11:01427Punt0–7
TENQ1 9:201676Touchdown0–14
PITQ1 0:171036Punt0–14
TENQ2 10:131-3Turnover0–14
PITQ2 10:0728Touchdown7–14
TENQ2 9:2924Turnover7–14
PITQ2 8:40447Field goal10–14
TENQ2 6:471141Punt10–14
PITQ2 1:35921Field goal13–14
TENQ3 15:001-2Turnover19–14
PITQ3 14:45131Touchdown20–14
TENQ3 14:37863Touchdown20–21
PITQ3 9:3734Punt20–21
TENQ3 8:42858Touchdown20–28
PITQ3 4:383-1Punt20–28
TENQ3 2:503-3Punt20–28
PITQ3 1:521035Missed field goal20–28
TENQ4 13:2430Punt20–28
PITQ4 12:16665Touchdown28–28
TENQ4 10:0910Turnover28–28
PITQ4 9:54420Field goal31–28
TENQ4 8:30634Field goal31–31
PITQ4 5:40524Punt31–31
TENQ4 2:4334Punt31–31
PITQ4 2:084-5Punt31–31
TENQ4 1:43850Missed field goal31–31
TENOT456Field goal31–34

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tommy Maddox21/4126621
Antwaan Randle El0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Amos Zereoue14493.51
Antwaan Randle El11111.00
Jerome Bettis362.00
Hines Ward210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hines Ward713822
Plaxico Burress26620
Antwaan Randle El46530
Terance Mathis36400
Amos Zereoue23100
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala1350
Jerame Tuman0200

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair27/4433822
Neil O'Donnell0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George15332.21
Steve McNair8293.61
Derrick Mason22010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Frank Wycheck10131231
Drew Bennett78850
Justin McCareins23530
Derrick Mason59470
Erron Kinney24201
Eddie George0100
John Simon0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.6%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.83
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.95