Closing spread
OAK -9
Total
46
Model margin
-0.1est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. OAK are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 69 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| TEN | Q1 10:59 | 9 | 89 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 5:59 | 8 | 95 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| TEN | Q1 2:47 | 10 | 42 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| LV | Q2 12:39 | 3 | 15 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| TEN | Q2 11:44 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 10–14 |
| LV | Q2 9:47 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–14 |
| TEN | Q2 8:54 | 12 | 52 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| LV | Q2 2:47 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–14 |
| TEN | Q2 1:47 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| LV | Q2 1:28 | 2 | 16 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| TEN | Q2 1:00 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 17–21 |
| LV | Q2 0:49 | 4 | 14 | Turnover | 17–24 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 33 | Punt | 17–24 |
| LV | Q3 9:56 | 8 | 41 | Punt | 17–24 |
| TEN | Q3 6:51 | 4 | -1 | Turnover on downs | 17–24 |
| LV | Q3 5:29 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 17–27 |
| TEN | Q3 4:29 | 9 | 54 | Touchdown | 24–27 |
| LV | Q3 0:31 | 10 | 46 | Touchdown | 24–34 |
| TEN | Q4 11:27 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 24–34 |
| LV | Q4 9:54 | 11 | 64 | Touchdown | 24–41 |
| TEN | Q4 3:25 | 11 | 30 | Turnover on downs | 24–41 |
| LV | Q4 0:29 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–41 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 21/36 | 194 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 15 | 67 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 5 | 53 | 10.6 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bennett | 3 | 6 | 58 | 1 |
| Derrick Mason | 5 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Erron Kinney | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Eddie Berlin | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Justin McCareins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.58
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.10
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.