Closing spread
DET -3.5
Total
39
Model margin
+3.8est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.154EPA / play-0.156
- 39.4%Success rate36.7%
- -0.108EPA / dropback-0.144
- -0.236EPA / rush-0.178
- 7.0%Explosive rate5.6%
- 37.2%Third-down rate34.9%
- 46.3%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 0.93Points / drive1.04
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.075EPA / play allowed-0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 10–9–1 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. DET are 10-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 12:27 | 13 | 73 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| DET | Q1 5:48 | 8 | 58 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q1 2:00 | 4 | -3 | Punt | 7–7 |
| DET | Q2 14:30 | 6 | 29 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| ARI | Q2 11:27 | 12 | 77 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| DET | Q2 5:35 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–14 |
| ARI | Q2 3:46 | 9 | 84 | End of half | 14–14 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 72 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| DET | Q3 13:59 | 9 | 37 | Punt | 21–14 |
| ARI | Q3 9:31 | 3 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 21–21 |
| ARI | Q3 8:21 | 7 | 22 | Punt | 21–21 |
| DET | Q3 5:04 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 21–21 |
| DET | Q3 4:02 | 2 | 35 | Touchdown | 21–28 |
| ARI | Q3 3:12 | 5 | 41 | Field goal | 21–28 |
| ARI | Q3 0:54 | 1 | 0 | Field goal | 24–28 |
| ARI | Q3 0:49 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 24–28 |
| DET | Q3 0:44 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 24–28 |
| ARI | Q4 14:41 | 1 | -10 | Turnover | 24–28 |
| DET | Q4 14:34 | 6 | 36 | Touchdown | 24–35 |
| ARI | Q4 11:43 | 2 | 2 | Opp touchdown | 24–42 |
| ARI | Q4 10:50 | 12 | 73 | Turnover on downs | 24–42 |
| DET | Q4 6:16 | 4 | 26 | Punt | 24–42 |
| ARI | Q4 4:18 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 24–42 |
| DET | Q4 2:29 | 3 | 11 | End of half | 24–42 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 28/46 | 363 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 13 | 64 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 17/30 | 195 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olandis Gary | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Charles Rogers | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Avon Cobourne | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.22
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.78