Closing spread
DAL -2
Total
36.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.116EPA / play-0.085
- 39.2%Success rate39.6%
- -0.213EPA / dropback-0.053
- +0.020EPA / rush-0.123
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.1%
- 29.8%Third-down rate36.8%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate50.3%
- 1.36Points / drive1.23
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.030EPA / play allowed-0.125
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 47.9 points. DAL are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 67 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DAL | Q1 8:40 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–0 |
| ATL | Q1 7:40 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DAL | Q1 5:46 | 3 | 71 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| ATL | Q1 4:25 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| DAL | Q1 3:35 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 3–7 |
| ATL | Q1 1:13 | 5 | 1 | Punt | 3–7 |
| DAL | Q2 15:00 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 3–7 |
| ATL | Q2 11:35 | 5 | 37 | Punt | 3–7 |
| DAL | Q2 9:02 | 9 | 42 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| ATL | Q2 4:28 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–7 |
| DAL | Q2 4:06 | 10 | 52 | Missed field goal | 3–7 |
| ATL | Q2 0:16 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 3–7 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 18 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| ATL | Q3 13:27 | 5 | 40 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| DAL | Q3 11:23 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–7 |
| ATL | Q3 9:38 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 10–7 |
| DAL | Q3 6:34 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 16–7 |
| ATL | Q3 4:12 | 1 | 41 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| DAL | Q3 4:02 | 4 | -6 | Punt | 17–7 |
| ATL | Q3 2:22 | 7 | 38 | Field goal | 20–7 |
| DAL | Q4 12:44 | 3 | 78 | Touchdown | 20–13 |
| ATL | Q4 11:37 | 14 | 75 | Touchdown | 27–13 |
| DAL | Q4 3:11 | 11 | 92 | Turnover on downs | 27–13 |
| ATL | Q4 1:10 | 2 | -4 | End of half | 27–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Johnson | 16/27 | 228 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 13 | 41 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 5 | 36 | 7.2 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Quentin McCord | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 5 | -2 | -0.4 | 1 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 15/32 | 268 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aveion Cason | 2 | 77 | 38.5 | 1 |
| Troy Hambrick | 14 | 53 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.5%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.74
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.30