Closing spread
PIT -4
Total
38.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.093EPA / play-0.084
- 38.5%Success rate41.6%
- -0.112EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.074EPA / rush-0.170
- 9.7%Explosive rate7.5%
- 31.7%Third-down rate36.1%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 1.53Points / drive1.33
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.194EPA / play allowed-0.051
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 22/43 | 152 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 15 | 69 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Kyle Boller | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 21/29 | 260 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amos Zereoue | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Jerome Bettis | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.62
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.94