Closing spread
SF -6.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.100EPA / play+0.026
- 38.3%Success rate43.9%
- -0.156EPA / dropback+0.124
- -0.016EPA / rush-0.099
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- 33.9%Third-down rate41.6%
- 54.5%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 1.44Points / drive1.83
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.013EPA / play allowed-0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–8 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. SF are 10-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 14/34 | 95 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 19/35 | 229 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 15 | 62 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 11 | 56 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Jamal Robertson | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.55
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.12