2003 · Week 1

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Kordell Stewart

7·49

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jeff Garcia

3Com Park · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

SF -6.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge map49ers
  • -0.100EPA / play+0.026
  • 38.3%Success rate43.9%
  • -0.156EPA / dropback+0.124
  • -0.016EPA / rush-0.099
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.2%
  • 33.9%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 54.5%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
  • 1.44Points / drive1.83
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.3%
  • -0.013EPA / play allowed-0.045

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–8 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. SF are 10-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17CHI @ SF38–42SF
2024 · W14CHI @ SF13–38SF
2022 · W1SF @ CHI10–19CHI
2021 · W8SF @ CHI33–22SF
2018 · W16CHI @ SF14–9CHI
2017 · W13SF @ CHI15–14SF
2016 · W13SF @ CHI6–26CHI
2015 · W13SF @ CHI26–20SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–SF
CHIQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:131065Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 7:5134Punt0–3
SFQ1 6:42856Touchdown0–10
CHIQ1 3:23922Punt0–10
SFQ2 14:4521Turnover0–10
CHIQ2 13:59416Touchdown7–10
SFQ2 12:05938Punt7–10
SFQ2 7:2136Touchdown7–17
CHIQ2 6:0135Punt7–17
SFQ2 4:11318Touchdown7–23
CHIQ2 3:1838Punt7–23
SFQ2 2:1934Punt7–23
CHIQ2 1:41728Opp touchdown7–30
CHIQ2 0:4430Turnover7–30
SFQ2 0:18226Field goal7–33
SFQ3 15:001459Field goal7–36
CHIQ3 7:2934Punt7–36
SFQ3 6:13845Field goal7–39
CHIQ3 2:3754Turnover7–39
SFQ3 1:03526Field goal7–42
CHIQ4 14:0526Turnover7–42
SFQ4 13:28325Touchdown7–49
CHIQ4 12:166-2Punt7–49
SFQ4 8:52515Punt7–49
CHIQ4 4:33311Punt7–49
CHIQ4 4:0446Turnover on downs7–49
SFQ4 3:1323Turnover on downs7–49
SFQ4 2:0024Turnover on downs7–49
CHIQ4 1:0826End of half7–49
CHIQ4 0:0000End of half7–49

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kordell Stewart14/349513

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kordell Stewart6213.50
Anthony Thomas6152.50
Adrian Peterson5122.40
Stanley Pritchett263.00
Marty Booker111.00

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Garcia19/3522921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevan Barlow15624.10
Garrison Hearst11565.11
Jeff Garcia7365.11
Jamal Robertson691.50
Terrell Owens1-1-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

4.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.1%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.55
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.12