Closing spread
DEN -6
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play+0.049
- 44.6%Success rate43.9%
- +0.043EPA / dropback+0.126
- +0.047EPA / rush-0.053
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.6%
- 39.9%Third-down rate44.6%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 1.96Points / drive1.83
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.073EPA / play allowed+0.077
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CIN are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 12:59 | 7 | 37 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CIN | Q1 9:04 | 12 | 37 | Turnover on downs | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q1 4:17 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CIN | Q1 1:33 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q2 14:45 | 8 | 46 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| CIN | Q2 10:54 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| DEN | Q2 9:21 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| CIN | Q2 9:10 | 10 | 55 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| DEN | Q2 3:13 | 5 | 66 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| CIN | Q2 1:13 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 17–3 |
| DEN | Q2 1:07 | 5 | 20 | Field goal | 20–3 |
| CIN | Q2 0:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–3 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 20–3 |
| CIN | Q3 11:10 | 3 | 3 | Opp touchdown | 27–3 |
| CIN | Q3 10:18 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 27–3 |
| DEN | Q3 8:42 | 7 | 26 | Turnover | 27–3 |
| CIN | Q3 4:24 | 7 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 27–3 |
| DEN | Q3 1:24 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 27–3 |
| CIN | Q4 14:50 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 27–3 |
| DEN | Q4 14:24 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 27–3 |
| CIN | Q4 12:44 | 8 | 56 | Turnover on downs | 27–3 |
| DEN | Q4 9:10 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 27–3 |
| CIN | Q4 8:24 | 1 | -6 | Turnover | 27–3 |
| DEN | Q4 8:16 | 7 | 29 | Field goal | 30–3 |
| CIN | Q4 4:16 | 4 | 75 | Touchdown | 30–10 |
| DEN | Q4 3:04 | 6 | 10 | Punt | 30–10 |
| CIN | Q4 0:31 | 4 | 42 | End of half | 30–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 12/25 | 115 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 24 | 120 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Rod Smith | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Ashley Lelie | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 20/37 | 264 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 14 | 34 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.54