Closing spread
MIA -14
Total
34.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.099EPA / play-0.093
- 38.7%Success rate39.3%
- -0.096EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.100
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.6%
- 30.8%Third-down rate33.0%
- 65.8%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.15Points / drive1.45
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.3%
- +0.041EPA / play allowed-0.116
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 12:31 | 6 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 9:23 | 10 | 79 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q1 5:10 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q1 4:11 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q1 0:59 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q2 14:44 | 3 | 7 | Missed field goal | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q2 12:50 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q2 11:55 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q2 10:08 | 2 | 57 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| HOU | Q2 9:20 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q2 7:49 | 1 | 3 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| HOU | Q2 7:43 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| MIA | Q2 6:17 | 10 | 93 | Touchdown | 6–14 |
| HOU | Q2 1:00 | 6 | 39 | Missed field goal | 6–14 |
| MIA | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–14 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 38 | Punt | 6–14 |
| HOU | Q3 8:11 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 6–14 |
| MIA | Q3 6:11 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 12–14 |
| HOU | Q3 4:34 | 1 | 78 | Touchdown | 12–14 |
| MIA | Q3 4:22 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 12–14 |
| HOU | Q3 3:00 | 6 | 41 | Field goal | 15–14 |
| MIA | Q3 0:21 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 15–20 |
| HOU | Q4 12:24 | 15 | 72 | Field goal | 18–20 |
| MIA | Q4 4:55 | 2 | 8 | Turnover | 18–20 |
| HOU | Q4 3:53 | 6 | 24 | Field goal | 21–20 |
| MIA | Q4 0:25 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 21–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 17/31 | 266 | 1 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stacey Mack | 27 | 89 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Domanick Williams | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
| David Carr | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 17/32 | 227 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 17 | 69 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.19
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.75