Closing spread
GB -4
Total
47
Model margin
+3.6est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.079EPA / play+0.065
- 45.9%Success rate45.9%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.044EPA / rush+0.001
- 9.7%Explosive rate10.4%
- 46.9%Third-down rate41.0%
- 62.7%Red-zone TD rate74.0%
- 1.96Points / drive2.11
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.008EPA / play allowed-0.077
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 9:28 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q1 9:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 7:58 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q1 6:26 | 9 | 40 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| GB | Q1 1:52 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| MIN | Q1 1:01 | 5 | 4 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| GB | Q2 14:14 | 7 | 12 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| MIN | Q2 11:02 | 10 | 72 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| GB | Q2 5:34 | 7 | 44 | Turnover | 17–3 |
| MIN | Q2 1:49 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–3 |
| GB | Q2 1:21 | 4 | 37 | Turnover | 17–3 |
| MIN | Q2 0:17 | 1 | 0 | Field goal | 20–3 |
| GB | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–3 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 20–3 |
| MIN | Q3 11:56 | 8 | 54 | Touchdown | 27–3 |
| GB | Q3 8:47 | 15 | 78 | Touchdown | 27–11 |
| MIN | Q3 1:30 | 10 | 64 | Field goal | 30–11 |
| GB | Q4 10:07 | 10 | 64 | Touchdown | 30–18 |
| MIN | Q4 6:27 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 30–18 |
| GB | Q4 6:23 | 4 | 18 | Turnover | 30–18 |
| MIN | Q4 5:13 | 7 | 21 | Turnover | 30–18 |
| GB | Q4 2:24 | 3 | 41 | Touchdown | 30–25 |
| MIN | Q4 1:55 | 3 | -3 | End of half | 30–25 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 15/30 | 195 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moe Williams | 22 | 80 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 9 | 50 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Kelly Campbell | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 25/41 | 248 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 15 | 53 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Najeh Davenport | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.56