Closing spread
GB -4
Total
47
Model margin
+3.6est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.079EPA / play+0.065
- 45.9%Success rate45.9%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.044EPA / rush+0.001
- 9.7%Explosive rate10.4%
- 46.9%Third-down rate41.0%
- 62.7%Red-zone TD rate74.0%
- 1.96Points / drive2.11
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.008EPA / play allowed-0.077
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 15/30 | 195 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moe Williams | 22 | 80 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 9 | 50 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Kelly Campbell | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 25/41 | 248 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 15 | 53 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Najeh Davenport | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.56