Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
42
Model margin
+3.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
6.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.117EPA / play-0.032
- 39.7%Success rate41.2%
- -0.140EPA / dropback-0.002
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.070
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.9%
- 31.3%Third-down rate36.7%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate52.7%
- 1.19Points / drive1.46
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.087EPA / play allowed-0.021
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 10–8 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. JAX are 7-11 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 49 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 11:17 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q1 9:35 | 12 | 83 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| JAX | Q1 4:50 | 5 | 6 | Punt | 14–0 |
| BUF | Q1 1:51 | 7 | 21 | Turnover on downs | 14–0 |
| JAX | Q2 13:21 | 9 | 44 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| BUF | Q2 9:29 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–7 |
| JAX | Q2 8:15 | 11 | 34 | Missed field goal | 14–7 |
| BUF | Q2 1:53 | 2 | 62 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| JAX | Q2 1:37 | 8 | 27 | End of half | 21–7 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 33 | Field goal | 21–10 |
| BUF | Q3 12:54 | 10 | 63 | Touchdown | 28–10 |
| JAX | Q3 8:03 | 8 | 9 | Punt | 28–10 |
| BUF | Q3 4:45 | 8 | 57 | Touchdown | 35–10 |
| JAX | Q3 0:59 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 35–10 |
| BUF | Q4 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 35–10 |
| JAX | Q4 13:07 | 6 | 23 | Turnover on downs | 35–10 |
| BUF | Q4 10:30 | 8 | 35 | Field goal | 38–10 |
| JAX | Q4 5:11 | 9 | 90 | Touchdown | 38–17 |
| BUF | Q4 1:53 | 3 | -2 | End of half | 38–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 19/25 | 314 | 2 | 0 |
| Alex Van Pelt | 1/2 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 21 | 26 | 1.2 | 3 |
| Joe Burns | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Alex Van Pelt | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 19/32 | 122 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 7/8 | 92 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 14 | 71 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
6.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.50
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.21