Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
43
Model margin
+2.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 25-26-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 53 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:18 | 9 | 63 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| DEN | Q1 6:21 | 7 | 93 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| LAC | Q1 1:36 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–3 |
| DEN | Q1 0:28 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 14–3 |
| LAC | Q2 14:08 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 14–3 |
| DEN | Q2 12:59 | 11 | 64 | Touchdown | 21–3 |
| LAC | Q2 6:58 | 12 | 90 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| DEN | Q2 1:05 | 6 | 61 | Field goal | 24–10 |
| LAC | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–10 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 67 | Field goal | 24–13 |
| DEN | Q3 9:31 | 10 | 34 | Touchdown | 31–13 |
| LAC | Q3 4:48 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 31–13 |
| DEN | Q3 3:21 | 5 | 18 | Field goal | 34–13 |
| LAC | Q3 1:05 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 34–13 |
| DEN | Q3 0:47 | 3 | 13 | Field goal | 37–13 |
| LAC | Q4 14:21 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 37–13 |
| DEN | Q4 13:22 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 37–13 |
| LAC | Q4 9:22 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 37–13 |
| DEN | Q4 8:03 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 37–13 |
| LAC | Q4 4:46 | 13 | 57 | Turnover on downs | 37–13 |
| DEN | Q4 1:43 | 1 | 1 | End of half | 37–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 7/16 | 98 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 9/13 | 94 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 12 | 129 | 10.8 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 16 | 65 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Jake Plummer | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Steve Beuerlein | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Chris Cole | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.07
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.