Closing spread
STL -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. STL are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 19/35 | 222 | 2 | 1 |
| Tim Rattay | 1/2 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1/1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 11 | 89 | 8.1 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.38
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.18
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.