Closing spread
IND -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.040EPA / play+0.100
- 42.3%Success rate46.3%
- +0.215EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.172EPA / rush-0.060
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.2%
- 41.2%Third-down rate42.2%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.93Points / drive2.34
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed+0.000
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–16 since 1999
Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-21 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 12:23 | 12 | 47 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q1 6:06 | 8 | 32 | Punt | 0–3 |
| IND | Q1 1:03 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q2 14:49 | 10 | 39 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| IND | Q2 8:47 | 4 | 52 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| TEN | Q2 6:14 | 5 | 41 | Punt | 7–10 |
| IND | Q2 2:21 | 6 | 73 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| TEN | Q2 0:56 | 4 | 11 | End of half | 7–17 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 7–17 |
| TEN | Q3 10:47 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–17 |
| IND | Q3 8:41 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| TEN | Q3 7:42 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–20 |
| IND | Q3 6:32 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 7–20 |
| TEN | Q3 3:09 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–20 |
| IND | Q3 1:31 | 14 | 77 | Field goal | 7–23 |
| TEN | Q4 9:26 | 3 | -7 | Turnover | 7–23 |
| IND | Q4 9:04 | 3 | -6 | Field goal | 7–26 |
| TEN | Q4 6:52 | 8 | 48 | Turnover on downs | 7–26 |
| IND | Q4 4:12 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–26 |
| TEN | Q4 2:43 | 7 | 49 | Opp touchdown | 7–33 |
| TEN | Q4 0:22 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–33 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 15/24 | 138 | 1 | 0 |
| Billy Volek | 6/9 | 61 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Billy Volek | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 14/21 | 173 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 30 | 120 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.48