Closing spread
IND -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.040EPA / play+0.100
- 42.3%Success rate46.3%
- +0.215EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.172EPA / rush-0.060
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.2%
- 41.2%Third-down rate42.2%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.93Points / drive2.34
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed+0.000
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-20 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 15/24 | 138 | 1 | 0 |
| Billy Volek | 6/9 | 61 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Billy Volek | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 14/21 | 173 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 30 | 120 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.48