2003 · Week 2
Final
Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.061EPA / play-0.116
- 40.4%Success rate39.2%
- -0.070EPA / dropback-0.213
- -0.048EPA / rush+0.020
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.5%
- 34.4%Third-down rate29.8%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.45Points / drive1.36
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.048EPA / play allowed+0.030
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.3 points. ATL are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ramsey | 25/39 | 356 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trung Canidate | 15 | 89 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Rock Cartwright | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Chad Morton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Johnson | 16/36 | 197 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 13 | 62 | 4.8 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Justin Griffith | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.56