Closing spread
SD -1.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–4 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. SD are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 13:18 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 11:20 | 14 | 77 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q1 2:44 | 4 | 18 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q1 1:31 | 10 | 75 | Punt | 7–3 |
| BAL | Q2 11:01 | 11 | 45 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q2 6:04 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–3 |
| BAL | Q2 4:21 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q2 2:51 | 11 | 48 | Missed field goal | 7–3 |
| BAL | Q2 0:46 | 6 | 29 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 13 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| LAC | Q3 12:21 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 10–3 |
| BAL | Q3 10:44 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LAC | Q3 7:43 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–3 |
| BAL | Q3 6:02 | 6 | 72 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| LAC | Q3 3:00 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 17–3 |
| BAL | Q3 1:43 | 2 | 14 | Touchdown | 24–3 |
| LAC | Q3 1:18 | 15 | 77 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| BAL | Q4 9:06 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 24–10 |
| LAC | Q4 6:59 | 8 | 74 | Turnover | 24–10 |
| BAL | Q4 4:05 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 24–10 |
| LAC | Q4 1:48 | 5 | 27 | Turnover | 24–10 |
| BAL | Q4 0:53 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 24–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 12/21 | 98 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 23 | 132 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.0%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.73
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.