Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.117EPA / play-0.093
- 39.7%Success rate39.3%
- -0.140EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.100
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.6%
- 31.3%Third-down rate33.0%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.19Points / drive1.45
- 3.2%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.087EPA / play allowed-0.116
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 10/25 | 98 | 0 | 2 |
| Travis Henry | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burns | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 16/28 | 154 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 42 | 153 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jay Fiedler | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.88
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.44