Closing spread
GB -7.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
-2.9est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.065EPA / play-0.154
- 45.9%Success rate39.4%
- +0.126EPA / dropback-0.108
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.236
- 10.4%Explosive rate7.0%
- 41.0%Third-down rate37.2%
- 74.0%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
- 2.11Points / drive0.93
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.077EPA / play allowed+0.075
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–5 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. ARI are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 11:27 | 7 | 51 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 6:51 | 1 | -2 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 6:42 | 4 | 39 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 4:16 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 2:12 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 0:19 | 5 | 31 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q2 12:44 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–7 |
| GB | Q2 10:59 | 8 | 61 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q2 6:44 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–7 |
| GB | Q2 5:29 | 10 | 54 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| ARI | Q2 1:17 | 6 | 77 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| GB | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–10 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 72 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| GB | Q3 7:31 | 6 | 35 | Punt | 10–13 |
| ARI | Q3 4:15 | 10 | 54 | Punt | 10–13 |
| GB | Q4 13:56 | 7 | 37 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| ARI | Q4 11:08 | 12 | 50 | Touchdown | 13–20 |
| GB | Q4 3:59 | 12 | 68 | Turnover | 13–20 |
| ARI | Q4 0:02 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 13–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 23/33 | 245 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 21 | 53 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 20/31 | 273 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 20 | 50 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
4.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.4%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.86