Closing spread
GB -7.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
-2.9est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.065EPA / play-0.154
- 45.9%Success rate39.4%
- +0.126EPA / dropback-0.108
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.236
- 10.4%Explosive rate7.0%
- 41.0%Third-down rate37.2%
- 74.0%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
- 2.11Points / drive0.93
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.077EPA / play allowed+0.075
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–5 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. ARI are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 23/33 | 245 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 21 | 53 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 20/31 | 273 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 20 | 50 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
4.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.4%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.86