Closing spread
IND -7.5
Total
42
Model margin
+3.7est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play+0.100
- 41.2%Success rate46.3%
- -0.002EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.070EPA / rush-0.060
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.2%
- 36.7%Third-down rate42.2%
- 52.7%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.46Points / drive2.34
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%
- -0.021EPA / play allowed+0.000
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–23 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. IND are 17-32-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 9:36 | 8 | 37 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 5:08 | 10 | 62 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| IND | Q2 14:19 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q2 12:19 | 5 | 17 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| IND | Q2 10:11 | 11 | 41 | Punt | 3–0 |
| JAX | Q2 4:12 | 13 | 57 | Missed field goal | 3–0 |
| IND | Q2 0:10 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–0 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 66 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q3 10:02 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 3–7 |
| IND | Q3 8:33 | 8 | 47 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| JAX | Q3 5:22 | 1 | 10 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| IND | Q3 5:10 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| JAX | Q3 3:37 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–17 |
| IND | Q3 2:41 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 3–17 |
| JAX | Q4 14:47 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–17 |
| IND | Q4 13:46 | 6 | 23 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| JAX | Q4 10:17 | 4 | 45 | Field goal | 6–20 |
| IND | Q4 8:57 | 9 | 56 | Field goal | 6–23 |
| JAX | Q4 2:29 | 5 | 32 | Touchdown | 13–23 |
| IND | Q4 1:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 12/23 | 90 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 4/5 | 32 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 17 | 126 | 7.4 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 21/33 | 216 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 27 | 76 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.68