Closing spread
KC -7.5
Total
44
Model margin
-1.3est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.124EPA / play-0.099
- 47.9%Success rate38.7%
- +0.163EPA / dropback-0.096
- +0.069EPA / rush-0.102
- 10.6%Explosive rate9.0%
- 42.4%Third-down rate30.8%
- 79.8%Red-zone TD rate65.8%
- 2.38Points / drive1.15
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.012EPA / play allowed+0.041
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. HOU are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 12:59 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 11:25 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q1 8:37 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 6:19 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q1 2:20 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 7–0 |
| KC | Q2 14:49 | 8 | 68 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q2 11:34 | 9 | 101 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| KC | Q2 5:47 | 14 | 69 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| HOU | Q2 0:13 | 1 | 1 | End of half | 14–7 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 34 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| KC | Q3 11:38 | 9 | 33 | Punt | 14–7 |
| HOU | Q3 6:43 | 5 | 17 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| KC | Q3 4:38 | 3 | 32 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| HOU | Q3 3:14 | 3 | 2 | Opp touchdown | 28–7 |
| HOU | Q3 1:28 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 28–7 |
| KC | Q4 14:47 | 3 | 70 | Touchdown | 35–7 |
| HOU | Q4 13:58 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 35–7 |
| KC | Q4 12:36 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 35–7 |
| HOU | Q4 12:24 | 4 | 25 | Turnover | 35–7 |
| KC | Q4 11:16 | 6 | 41 | Punt | 35–7 |
| HOU | Q4 7:46 | 3 | 16 | Opp touchdown | 42–7 |
| HOU | Q4 7:00 | 17 | 68 | Touchdown | 42–14 |
| KC | Q4 1:54 | 4 | 7 | End of half | 42–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 16/28 | 262 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 18 | 89 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Dante Hall | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Larry Johnson | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 1 |
| Trent Green | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Todd Collins | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 17/27 | 167 | 1 | 2 |
| Tony Banks | 7/11 | 51 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Hollings | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| David Carr | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
4.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.6%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.30