Closing spread
MIN -4
Total
47.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.079EPA / play-0.156
- 45.9%Success rate36.7%
- +0.164EPA / dropback-0.144
- -0.044EPA / rush-0.178
- 9.7%Explosive rate5.6%
- 46.9%Third-down rate34.9%
- 62.7%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 1.96Points / drive1.04
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.008EPA / play allowed-0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. DET are 26-25-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 38 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 11:00 | 5 | 28 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| DET | Q1 8:31 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 5:49 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DET | Q1 3:44 | 6 | 21 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| MIN | Q1 0:52 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DET | Q2 14:43 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–10 |
| MIN | Q2 12:59 | 3 | 36 | Touchdown | 6–10 |
| DET | Q2 12:02 | 8 | 47 | Turnover | 6–10 |
| MIN | Q2 7:48 | 6 | 98 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| DET | Q2 4:57 | 8 | 22 | Punt | 13–10 |
| MIN | Q2 0:43 | 5 | 77 | Field goal | 16–10 |
| DET | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 16–10 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 16–10 |
| DET | Q3 14:42 | 8 | 31 | Field goal | 16–13 |
| MIN | Q3 10:21 | 6 | 85 | Touchdown | 23–13 |
| DET | Q3 7:52 | 9 | 50 | Punt | 23–13 |
| MIN | Q3 2:48 | 13 | 48 | Punt | 23–13 |
| DET | Q4 10:35 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 23–13 |
| MIN | Q4 8:47 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 23–13 |
| DET | Q4 6:37 | 4 | 38 | Turnover | 23–13 |
| MIN | Q4 4:52 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 23–13 |
| DET | Q4 3:04 | 11 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 23–13 |
| MIN | Q4 1:28 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 23–13 |
| DET | Q4 0:22 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 23–13 |
| MIN | Q4 0:12 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 8/19 | 184 | 1 | 1 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 7/13 | 105 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moe Williams | 13 | 95 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 2 |
| Kelly Campbell | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Onterrio Smith | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 24/42 | 235 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Bryson | 17 | 49 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Joey Harrington | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Eddie Drummond | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.3%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.64