Closing spread
NE -6
Total
38
Model margin
+6.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play-0.043
- 41.4%Success rate40.7%
- +0.040EPA / dropback+0.048
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.161
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.5%
- 40.0%Third-down rate37.4%
- 51.3%Red-zone TD rate47.0%
- 1.47Points / drive1.42
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%
- +0.022EPA / play allowed-0.159
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 25/43 | 264 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 15 | 53 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 15/25 | 181 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 17 | 79 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 13 | 55 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.19
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.08