Closing spread
DEN -5.5
Total
45
Model margin
+3.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 13:31 | 7 | 60 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 9:28 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 7:05 | 6 | 55 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LV | Q1 4:14 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–14 |
| DEN | Q1 3:17 | 4 | 55 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| LV | Q1 0:54 | 7 | 41 | Punt | 0–21 |
| DEN | Q2 12:57 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 0–21 |
| LV | Q2 11:05 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–21 |
| DEN | Q2 8:42 | 12 | 73 | Field goal | 0–24 |
| LV | Q2 2:28 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–24 |
| DEN | Q2 0:46 | 1 | 3 | End of half | 0–24 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–31 |
| LV | Q3 12:11 | 13 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–31 |
| DEN | Q3 5:21 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 7–31 |
| LV | Q3 2:27 | 2 | 3 | Punt | 7–31 |
| LV | Q3 1:03 | 1 | -5 | Punt | 7–31 |
| LV | Q3 0:37 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 7–31 |
| DEN | Q3 0:25 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–31 |
| LV | Q4 13:19 | 1 | 0 | Field goal | 7–31 |
| LV | Q4 13:13 | 2 | 11 | Field goal | 10–31 |
| DEN | Q4 12:26 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–31 |
| LV | Q4 10:53 | 4 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 10–31 |
| DEN | Q4 10:30 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–31 |
| LV | Q4 8:12 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 10–31 |
| DEN | Q4 7:00 | 7 | 25 | Turnover | 10–31 |
| LV | Q4 2:29 | 6 | 36 | Turnover | 10–31 |
| DEN | Q4 0:59 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 14/21 | 197 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 14 | 70 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Jake Plummer | 5 | 48 | 9.6 | 1 |
| Clinton Portis | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Quentin Griffin | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Ashley Lelie | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.05
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.