Closing spread
DEN -5.5
Total
45
Model margin
+3.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 14/21 | 197 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 14 | 70 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Jake Plummer | 5 | 48 | 9.6 | 1 |
| Clinton Portis | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Quentin Griffin | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Ashley Lelie | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.05
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.