Closing spread
CLE -4.5
Total
40
Model margin
-0.2est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.049EPA / play-0.100
- 43.9%Success rate43.0%
- +0.126EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.053EPA / rush-0.144
- 7.6%Explosive rate6.8%
- 44.6%Third-down rate37.1%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate47.9%
- 1.83Points / drive1.31
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.077EPA / play allowed-0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 23/31 | 215 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 15 | 51 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 23/36 | 280 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Green | 16 | 47 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.20