Closing spread
CLE -4.5
Total
40
Model margin
-0.2est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.049EPA / play-0.100
- 43.9%Success rate43.0%
- +0.126EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.053EPA / rush-0.144
- 7.6%Explosive rate6.8%
- 44.6%Third-down rate37.1%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate47.9%
- 1.83Points / drive1.31
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.077EPA / play allowed-0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 76 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 14:06 | 14 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q1 7:14 | 14 | 36 | Missed field goal | 7–7 |
| CIN | Q2 14:50 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q2 13:06 | 7 | 67 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| CIN | Q2 9:31 | 8 | 24 | Punt | 7–14 |
| CLE | Q2 6:04 | 8 | 29 | Punt | 7–14 |
| CIN | Q2 1:05 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| CLE | Q2 0:20 | 1 | 7 | End of half | 14–14 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 54 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| CLE | Q3 9:01 | 9 | 54 | Punt | 21–14 |
| CIN | Q3 3:27 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 21–14 |
| CLE | Q3 2:25 | 8 | 37 | Turnover on downs | 21–14 |
| CIN | Q4 14:06 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 21–14 |
| CLE | Q4 11:55 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 21–14 |
| CIN | Q4 10:54 | 10 | 42 | Punt | 21–14 |
| CLE | Q4 4:32 | 7 | 6 | Punt | 21–14 |
| CIN | Q4 2:23 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 21–14 |
| CLE | Q4 1:49 | 5 | 24 | Turnover | 21–14 |
| CIN | Q4 0:51 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 23/31 | 215 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 15 | 51 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 23/36 | 280 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Green | 16 | 47 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.20