Closing spread
GB -4
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.065EPA / play-0.100
- 45.9%Success rate38.3%
- +0.126EPA / dropback-0.156
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.016
- 10.4%Explosive rate7.4%
- 41.0%Third-down rate33.9%
- 74.0%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
- 2.11Points / drive1.44
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.077EPA / play allowed-0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 41–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CHI are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 14:04 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 12:44 | 2 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CHI | Q1 11:55 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 8:30 | 10 | 55 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| CHI | Q1 2:32 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–0 |
| GB | Q1 0:59 | 2 | 20 | Touchdown | 17–0 |
| CHI | Q1 0:19 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–0 |
| GB | Q2 14:41 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 17–0 |
| CHI | Q2 14:36 | 9 | 21 | Field goal | 17–3 |
| GB | Q2 9:07 | 10 | 82 | Touchdown | 24–3 |
| CHI | Q2 3:51 | 9 | 65 | Field goal | 24–6 |
| GB | Q2 0:48 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 24–6 |
| CHI | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–6 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 28 | Turnover | 24–6 |
| GB | Q3 9:31 | 11 | 38 | Turnover on downs | 24–6 |
| CHI | Q3 5:18 | 10 | 55 | Field goal | 24–9 |
| GB | Q3 0:02 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 24–9 |
| CHI | Q4 13:26 | 2 | 76 | Touchdown | 24–16 |
| GB | Q4 12:36 | 7 | 64 | Touchdown | 31–16 |
| CHI | Q4 8:51 | 4 | -1 | Punt | 31–16 |
| GB | Q4 7:07 | 7 | 37 | Touchdown | 38–16 |
| CHI | Q4 4:21 | 14 | 60 | Touchdown | 38–23 |
| GB | Q4 1:28 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 38–23 |
| CHI | Q4 1:27 | 4 | 33 | Turnover | 38–23 |
| GB | Q4 0:41 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 38–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 21/30 | 179 | 3 | 1 |
| Doug Pederson | 1/1 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 19 | 176 | 9.3 | 2 |
| Tony Fisher | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Javon Walker | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 25/44 | 201 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 13 | 110 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Kordell Stewart | 12 | 71 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dez White | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.30