Closing spread
GB -4
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.065EPA / play-0.100
- 45.9%Success rate38.3%
- +0.126EPA / dropback-0.156
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.016
- 10.4%Explosive rate7.4%
- 41.0%Third-down rate33.9%
- 74.0%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
- 2.11Points / drive1.44
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.077EPA / play allowed-0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 21/30 | 179 | 3 | 1 |
| Doug Pederson | 1/1 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 19 | 176 | 9.3 | 2 |
| Tony Fisher | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Javon Walker | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 25/44 | 201 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 13 | 110 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Kordell Stewart | 12 | 71 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dez White | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.30