Closing spread
JAX -2.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.099
- 41.2%Success rate38.7%
- -0.002EPA / dropback-0.096
- -0.070EPA / rush-0.102
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.0%
- 36.7%Third-down rate30.8%
- 52.7%Red-zone TD rate65.8%
- 1.46Points / drive1.15
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.021EPA / play allowed+0.041
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 33–16 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. HOU are 28-20-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 69 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 9:00 | 13 | 56 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| HOU | Q1 3:10 | 8 | 53 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| JAX | Q2 14:11 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 3–14 |
| HOU | Q2 12:34 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–14 |
| JAX | Q2 11:33 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–14 |
| HOU | Q2 9:42 | 1 | 2 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| JAX | Q2 9:35 | 8 | 20 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| HOU | Q2 6:46 | 9 | 36 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| JAX | Q2 1:54 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| HOU | Q2 1:16 | 3 | 16 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| JAX | Q2 0:45 | 6 | 23 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 1 | 9 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| HOU | Q3 14:45 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| JAX | Q3 12:57 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| HOU | Q3 12:14 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–17 |
| JAX | Q3 11:07 | 2 | 84 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| HOU | Q3 10:50 | 6 | 36 | Missed field goal | 17–17 |
| JAX | Q3 7:42 | 8 | 58 | Field goal | 20–17 |
| HOU | Q3 4:04 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 20–17 |
| JAX | Q3 0:27 | 7 | 38 | Punt | 20–17 |
| HOU | Q4 12:21 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 20–17 |
| JAX | Q4 9:26 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 20–17 |
| HOU | Q4 7:51 | 7 | 46 | Turnover | 20–17 |
| JAX | Q4 4:24 | 4 | 24 | Turnover | 20–17 |
| HOU | Q4 2:42 | 13 | 38 | Touchdown | 20–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 17/36 | 231 | 1 | 3 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 1/1 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 19 | 67 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Byron Leftwich | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 23/36 | 234 | 1 | 1 |
| Stacey Mack | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 16 | 53 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 16 | 39 | 2.4 | 1 |
| David Carr | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.81
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.75