Closing spread
KC -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.124EPA / play-0.093
- 47.9%Success rate38.5%
- +0.163EPA / dropback-0.112
- +0.069EPA / rush-0.074
- 10.6%Explosive rate9.7%
- 42.4%Third-down rate31.7%
- 79.8%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 2.38Points / drive1.53
- 1.6%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.012EPA / play allowed-0.194
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. BAL are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 17/28 | 159 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 22 | 90 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | 36 | 36.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 15/26 | 140 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 26 | 115 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 5 | 47 | 9.4 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
6.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.83