Closing spread
KC -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.124EPA / play-0.093
- 47.9%Success rate38.5%
- +0.163EPA / dropback-0.112
- +0.069EPA / rush-0.074
- 10.6%Explosive rate9.7%
- 42.4%Third-down rate31.7%
- 79.8%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 2.38Points / drive1.53
- 1.6%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.012EPA / play allowed-0.194
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. BAL are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 36 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 12:15 | 3 | 28 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 10:35 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 8:17 | 6 | 21 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 5:09 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 3:02 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q2 14:18 | 9 | 39 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q2 9:45 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q2 8:17 | 9 | 50 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| BAL | Q2 3:23 | 6 | 39 | Punt | 3–0 |
| KC | Q2 0:57 | 5 | 32 | Punt | 3–0 |
| BAL | Q2 0:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–0 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 77 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| KC | Q3 10:01 | 7 | 76 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| BAL | Q3 5:43 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–3 |
| KC | Q3 4:32 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 10–3 |
| BAL | Q3 1:58 | 8 | 56 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| KC | Q4 12:20 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 10–3 |
| BAL | Q4 10:42 | 10 | 43 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| KC | Q4 5:27 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| BAL | Q4 5:08 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 17–10 |
| KC | Q4 3:58 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–10 |
| KC | Q4 2:21 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 17–10 |
| BAL | Q4 1:52 | 8 | 24 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| KC | Q4 0:29 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 17/28 | 159 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 22 | 90 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | 36 | 36.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 15/26 | 140 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 26 | 115 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 5 | 47 | 9.4 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
6.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.83