Closing spread
PK
Total
43
Model margin
+3.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play+0.079
- 43.9%Success rate45.9%
- +0.124EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.099EPA / rush-0.044
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.7%
- 41.6%Third-down rate46.9%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate62.7%
- 1.83Points / drive1.96
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.045EPA / play allowed-0.008
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. MIN are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 9:53 | 6 | 23 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 6:38 | 8 | 38 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| SF | Q1 2:46 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 0–14 |
| MIN | Q1 0:25 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–14 |
| SF | Q2 14:01 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–14 |
| MIN | Q2 10:31 | 10 | 97 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| SF | Q2 4:39 | 7 | 44 | Turnover | 0–21 |
| MIN | Q2 1:52 | 6 | 66 | Touchdown | 0–28 |
| SF | Q2 0:56 | 5 | 13 | Turnover | 0–28 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 70 | Turnover on downs | 0–28 |
| MIN | Q3 9:28 | 6 | 5 | Punt | 0–28 |
| SF | Q3 5:32 | 7 | 38 | Turnover on downs | 0–28 |
| MIN | Q3 2:26 | 5 | 68 | Touchdown | 0–35 |
| SF | Q4 14:52 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 0–35 |
| MIN | Q4 12:35 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–35 |
| SF | Q4 10:53 | 7 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–35 |
| MIN | Q4 7:37 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–35 |
| SF | Q4 5:49 | 15 | 60 | Turnover on downs | 7–35 |
| MIN | Q4 1:51 | 3 | -4 | End of half | 7–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 12/18 | 146 | 1 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 11/23 | 108 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 11 | 72 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 16/21 | 267 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moe Williams | 13 | 43 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Onterrio Smith | 10 | 43 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Kelly Campbell | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| John Avery | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.87
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.43