Closing spread
BUF -7
Total
40
Model margin
+2.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.049EPA / play-0.117
- 43.9%Success rate39.7%
- +0.126EPA / dropback-0.140
- -0.053EPA / rush-0.085
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.4%
- 44.6%Third-down rate31.3%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 1.83Points / drive1.19
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.2%
- +0.077EPA / play allowed-0.087
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. BUF are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 26/44 | 225 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 20 | 69 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Brandon Bennett | 6 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 19/35 | 211 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 25 | 85 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burns | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.11