Closing spread
PIT -7
Total
42
Model margin
+6.1est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.100EPA / play-0.084
- 43.0%Success rate41.6%
- -0.069EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.170
- 6.8%Explosive rate7.5%
- 37.1%Third-down rate36.1%
- 47.9%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 1.31Points / drive1.33
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.010EPA / play allowed-0.051
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999
Meetings average 39 points. PIT are 30-26-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 81 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| PIT | Q1 9:07 | 3 | -1 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| CLE | Q1 8:19 | 5 | 19 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| PIT | Q1 5:46 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 10–0 |
| PIT | Q1 1:25 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| CLE | Q2 14:56 | 4 | 23 | Touchdown | 16–3 |
| PIT | Q2 12:44 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 16–3 |
| CLE | Q2 9:16 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 16–3 |
| PIT | Q2 5:54 | 6 | 64 | Touchdown | 16–10 |
| CLE | Q2 3:17 | 9 | 73 | Touchdown | 23–10 |
| PIT | Q2 0:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–10 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 23–10 |
| CLE | Q3 13:54 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 23–10 |
| PIT | Q3 11:03 | 3 | 9 | Opp touchdown | 30–10 |
| PIT | Q3 9:30 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 30–10 |
| CLE | Q3 8:01 | 5 | 22 | Turnover | 30–10 |
| PIT | Q3 5:17 | 7 | 27 | Field goal | 30–13 |
| CLE | Q3 2:56 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 30–13 |
| PIT | Q3 1:02 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 30–13 |
| CLE | Q3 0:10 | 12 | 41 | Field goal | 33–13 |
| PIT | Q4 9:32 | 2 | 12 | Turnover | 33–13 |
| CLE | Q4 8:57 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 33–13 |
| PIT | Q4 4:35 | 7 | 36 | Turnover on downs | 33–13 |
| CLE | Q4 2:48 | 3 | 32 | End of half | 33–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 20/25 | 208 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Green | 33 | 115 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Quincy Morgan | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 11/24 | 136 | 0 | 2 |
| Charlie Batch | 3/6 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amos Zereoue | 13 | 38 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.1%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.07
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.07