Closing spread
PIT -7
Total
42
Model margin
+6.1est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.100EPA / play-0.084
- 43.0%Success rate41.6%
- -0.069EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.170
- 6.8%Explosive rate7.5%
- 37.1%Third-down rate36.1%
- 47.9%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 1.31Points / drive1.33
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.010EPA / play allowed-0.051
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 20/25 | 208 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Green | 33 | 115 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Quincy Morgan | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 11/24 | 136 | 0 | 2 |
| Charlie Batch | 3/6 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amos Zereoue | 13 | 38 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.1%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.07
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.07