Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play+0.124
- 44.6%Success rate47.9%
- +0.043EPA / dropback+0.163
- +0.047EPA / rush+0.069
- 8.6%Explosive rate10.6%
- 39.9%Third-down rate42.4%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate79.8%
- 1.96Points / drive2.38
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%
- -0.073EPA / play allowed-0.012
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 20/38 | 221 | 1 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 1/1 | 72 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 23 | 141 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Jake Plummer | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 15/28 | 128 | 2 | 1 |
| Priest Holmes | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 17 | 97 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
47.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.64